The world's temperature rise could be limited to under 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century if all the carbon-cutting commitments made at COP26 are successfully executed.
During the Glasgow summit, nations made promises committing to the prevention of global temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Going beyond this threshold poses significant risks, especially to vulnerable communities in small island nations and developing states.
While COP26 attendees brought forward enhanced emission reduction plans, the key question was the extent of their impact. Rapid assessments conducted during the summit suggested that these commitments would mitigate temperature increases. This new peer-reviewed study builds on those initial findings.
The research evaluates countries' short-term plans up to 2030, revealing catastrophic consequences from a 2.6 degree Celsius temperature rise. More importantly, the paper advocates for the fulfillment of long-term objectives, proposing that it would minimize greenhouse gas emissions and could have a more substantial cooling effect.
The study predicts a 13% increase in CO2 emissions by 2030, marking a large increase from the necessary 45% reduction. It is now therefore urgent to deploy carbon-removal technologies that stabilize atmosphere temperatures at safer levels.
Source: Meinshausen, Malte et al. “Realization of Paris Agreement Pledges May Limit Warming Just below 2 °C.” Nature 604.7905 (2022): 304–309. Web.
Edited by Adhitya Balachander.
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