Turning Point: World Reaches Peak Fossil Fuels for Electricity Generation

A recent report released this week brings exciting news, suggesting that the world has hit a turning point in the use of fossil fuels for electricity production. According to the report, solar and wind energy capacity is set to triple by the end of the decade, ultimately relegating fossil fuel electricity to a diminishing role.

The study, conducted by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a US nonprofit organization, aligns with similar findings from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA, in its assessment last year, predicted that global demand for fossil fuels would reach its peak in the mid-2030s. Notably, the IEA also acknowledged that Russia's actions in Ukraine, despite causing a temporary surge in coal consumption, have expedited the shift towards renewable energy, marking a historic step towards a cleaner future.

Electricity generation curve. The y-axis represents the power, in TWh, and the x-axis represents time, in years. Courtesy of RMI, Bond et al.

The latest installment of RMI's The Peaking Series unveils a pivotal moment: the demand for fossil fuels in the realm of electricity has reached its zenith. This demand is anticipated to plateau for a brief period before entering a notable decline during the latter half of the decade. The catalyst behind this transformation is the rapid expansion of solar and wind power generation, following the typical trajectory of S-curves (sigmoids). This expansion is fueled by factors such as cost-efficiency, a global shift in capital investment, and the broadening horizons of technological possibility.

The narrative becomes even more promising as solar and wind power advance further up the S-curve. Their capacity is poised to triple by the close of the decade, which will not only reshape the energy landscape but also signal the terminal decline of fossil fuel-based electricity.

While certain obstacles exist, none of them are insurmountable, immediate, or universally binding enough to maintain the status quo. The horizon of change looms above us, and it's evident that the disruption of the incumbent fossil fuel system is inevitable.

This news is a beacon of hope for humanity's endeavor to transition towards cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The acceleration of solar and wind power growth signifies a collective stride towards a future marked by reduced environmental impact, energy security, and a renewed commitment to preserving our planet for future generations.